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That reverses a June 6 report that showed four models predicting temperatures may exceed El Nino thresholds during the second half of 2. The bureau reset its outlook to inactive as the chances of El Nino forming this year fade.
Forecasts during the southern hemisphere’s autumn tend to have lower accuracy and begin to improve from June. El Nino and its La Nina counterpart can roil agriculture markets as farmers worldwide contend with too much or too little rain.
World Meteorological Organization PROGRAMMES site
The bureau canceled its El Nino watch “after an easing of climate model outlooks, and a reversal of the early autumn warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean,” it said. It reduced rainfall in the Indian monsoon and curbed production of cocoa in Ivory Coast, rice in Thailand and coffee in Indonesia. Far eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, which were above normal near the Peruvian coast in March and April, cooled during May and June, according to the weather bureau. Full story. From Ron Clutz: May Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are now available, and we can see ocean cooling resuming after a short pause from the downward trajectory during the previous 1.
Had. SST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source, the latest version being Had. SST3. The chart below shows the last two years of SST monthly anomalies as reported in Had. SST3 including May 2.
After an upward bump in April 2. Tropics and NH, the May SSTs show the average declining slightly. The present readings compare closely with April 2. El Nino event any time soon. Note that higher temps in 2. Tropical SST, beginning in March 2.
February 2. 01. 6, and steadily declining back to its beginning level. Secondly, the Northern Hemisphere added two bumps on the shoulders of Tropical warming, with peaks in August of each year. Also, note that the global release of heat was not dramatic, due to the Southern Hemisphere offsetting the Northern one.
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